Impact of Absentee Voting on California Presidential Primary

There has been a lot of talk about the impact of California and other states moving their primaries up earlier, but little analysis of how early voting will effect the results. California's official primary day may be February 5th, but hundreds of thousands, if not millions, will have filled out their ballots way before that date. We have 3.9 million people registered as permanent absentee voters. That's more people than even live in Iowa, let alone registered voters. This means that the impact of the media driven narratives coming out of the earliest states will be dampened in California.

Absentee voters in California can start mailing in their ballots on January 7th, before the first official primary (at least right now). Check out this chart from the WSJ.

This is effecting campaigns' strategic planning and resource allocation.

The early-voting trend may scramble the campaigning calculus in particular among Republicans, where leading candidates Rudy Giuliani and John McCain seem particularly vulnerable with the social conservatives dominating in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, which also has traditionally had an early, influential slot in the process.

"Though Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina are important, we can put less of our chips there," said one Giuliani campaign aide. This aide said the campaign will use a "return on investment formula" to determine where to push an early-voting strategy. The Giuliani campaign has been concentrating a lot of effort so far on Florida, Texas and California.

McCain spokesman Danny Diaz said the Arizona senator "is prepared for early voting and has a plan in place." He added that "it's not just a matter of securing early votes -- it's a matter of getting those supporters out to gather additional votes."

The Republicans have a particularly interesting tactical situation, due to their unusual method of awarding delegates. It makes a lot of sense for them to dedicate resources into specific congressional districts, with an aggressive absentee voter program to pick up delegates. That can be a heck of a lot cheaper then spending millions on some of these early states.

The Democrats moves can be predicted based on their early staffing moves. Sen. Clinton has staffed up here with a campaign manager, political director and field organizer. Obama has hired a national consulting firm in Pasadena. Edwards has made no move to create a campaign office or hired staff out here. It is still early yet, but these give us clues on how they are planning to play this.

Edwards has a lot riding on early states in Iowa, due to both the emphasis he has placed on winning it and how the media is discussing the viability of his campaign. Clinton is leading in all of the polls here by significant margins, making California a potential wealth of delegates for her. Richardson, as evidenced by his official announcement in LA will be putting a significant effort into doing well in California. One could expect him to target the large Latino population with an absentee campaign.

So who are these early voters?

Generally speaking, the typical early voter is likely to be older and more suburban than those who weigh in on election day, says Paul Gronke, a political-science professor who heads the nonpartisan Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Oregon. They also tend to be more ideologically driven, which may make them more enthusiastic about the candidates they pick and thus more likely to assume activist or volunteer roles. Those traits make them especially valuable to a campaign, and thus more crucial for a candidate to lock in early.

Because many states report ballots mailed and ballots returned as a matter of public record -- including the voters' names -- early voters can expect to be deluged with information from presidential supplicants.

"On the day you're mailed an absentee ballot, expect to get 50 pieces of mail the next day," says Alexander Heckler, a Miami lawyer and Democratic fund-raiser who has committed to New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign.

They are public records in California. Campaigns have learned how to leverage this to their advantage by targeting those voters with timely mail, phone calls and emails. Those are votes in the bank and they tend to be influentials who can be used to leverage their social networks for other votes. Successful candidates in California will hire state consulting firms with access to rich voter files and experience in these sorts of targeted campaigns.

In the 2006 primary, 47% of voters (2.4 million Californians) mailed in their ballots. That percentage has been steadily rising for years now. It is conceivable that we will top 50% in the presidential primary, with a significant percentage voting before Iowa and New Hampshire. That is a game changer folks. Who is going to step up and take advantage of it?