New Working Californians Poll on the CA GOP Presidential Primary

Los Angeles – As the Republican Presidential candidates arrive in California today for a debate at the Reagan Library, a new statewide poll identifies economic insecurity and cost-of-living issues like health care as important but under-discussed priorities for key blocks of likely GOP primary voters. And the vast majority of the GOP primary electorate supports a larger government role in fixing health care and reducing global warming and oil dependency.

The poll results and analysis were released today by Working Californians, a strategic research and public advocacy group promoting the interests of working people in public policy debates in California. (Links to the memos are at the bottom of this release.) Last week, around the California Democratic Party Convention, the group released its Democratic poll results and launched the “Choices for Working Californians” project, an online “one stop shop” for tracking the Presidential race on quality-of-life issues. The GOP issues section of the “Choices” project will be launched soon.

“Quality of life issues are important across party lines,” said Marvin Kropke, Co-Chair of Working Californians. “Working people in California – including working Republicans – are falling behind economically, and are especially concerned about health care.’

Said Brian D’Arcy, Co-chair of Working Californians, “Impressive majorities of Republican voters favor stronger government action on health care, global warming and oil dependency, but you wouldn’t know it from the debate thus far.”

For the GOP primary electorate overall, terrorism, Iraq, border security and immigration are the top issues. But for working Republican Californians – i.e., those self-identifying as “working” or “lower” class, and non-college educated voters – the importance of cost-of-living issues is significant.

• 62% of working/lower class Republicans say their family incomes are falling behind the cost of living.
• 36% of non-college-educated Republicans rank health care as one of the most important issues. 38% of unmarried women rank it as the most important issue, putting it ahead of Iraq (34%) and national security/terrorism (32%).
• Long-term health care was the top personal concern for 48% of working/lower class Republicans, 44% of women without a college degree, and 41% of seniors.

Additionally, the poll reported the following about likely California GOP Presidential primary voters:

• Significant majorities of GOP voters support stronger government action in making us independent of foreign oil (93% agree, with 62% strongly agreeing), in fixing health care (73% agree, with 39% strongly agreeing), and in reducing carbon pollution to address global warming (69% agree, with 30% strongly agreeing).
• Nearly one-third (31%) say their incomes are falling behind the cost of living, with an additional 51% just staying even. Only 16% say they’re getting ahead, the American Dream.
• When all GOP voters were asked to identify the two most important voting issues, 21% chose health care, placing it behind only national security/terrorism and Iraq in salience.
• Social issues are less important to GOP primary voters, compared to security and pocketbook issues. Only 12% say same-sex marriage is one of the most important issues in deciding how to vote; similarly, abortion is one of the most important issues to just 17%, and “protecting Second Amendment rights to own a gun” is one of the most important issues to just 18%.

In the horserace, Rudy Giuliani leads with 36%, followed by John McCain with 21%. Farther back in 3rd place is Mitt Romney at 9%, with no one else above 4%, and 20% were undecided. (Fred Thompson was at 3%.) Among voters familiar with the top three candidates, Giuliani holds at 36%, while Romney jumps to 17% and McCain drops to 15%; just 14% of these most knowledgeable voters are undecided.

The poll was conducted for Working Californians by The Mellman Group of Washington, D.C., April 9-12, 2007. The sample is 400 likely voters for the 2008 Republican Presidential primary in California, and the margin of error of 4.9%. For more survey results and analysis – on the issues as well as the horserace, favorability ratings and other data – please see the pollster’s two memos at:

http://workingcalifornians.com/story/analysis_of_california_republican_primary_survey_horserace and http://workingcalifornians.com/story/analysis_of_california_republican_primary_survey_issues.

About Working Californians

Working Californians is a strategic research and public advocacy group promoting the interests of working people in public policy debates in California, particularly in the Los Angeles area. Focusing especially on quality-of-life issues, Working Californians conducts and analyzes strategic research and directs public education, advocacy and political campaigns. The Co-Chairs of Working Californians are Brian D’Arcy of International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 18, and Marvin Kropke of International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 11. For more information, please visit www.WorkingCalifornians.com.

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